sUI ALERTS
USAID program restoration will not exceed 25% of pre-March 2025 levels within the 12-month planning Sudan healthcare system will not functionally recover in 2026 without a ceasefire currently assessedConflict-adjacent markets (Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Kenya, Uganda) are absorbing 30–50% demand surgesGovernance Perspective: 0.82 urgency — "Does USAID contract termination create disclosure obligations and receivables liability requiring board-level review?"SPFS secondary sanctions exposure is the highest-ROI compliance action in the next 48 hours. A2 at 8Iran war OFAC designation expansion within 90 days (A3 at 75%) is a near-base-case outcome based on The December 2025 OFAC third-country intermediary guidance creates a behavioral compliance obligatioGovernance Perspective: 0.84 urgency — "Does SPFS secondary sanctions criminal liability require board-level authorization for the compliance program update?"The EU's 19th sanctions package (October 2025) structurally removed Russian LNG from European marketIran-Hormuz risk premium of $8–12/barrel is embedded in Brent crude pricing and will persist absent European LNG import terminal capacity — not supply availability — is the binding physical constraintGovernance Perspective: 0.89 urgency — "Does EU sanctions compliance for LNG transactions require board-level compliance program authorization?"More than half of all energy-transition minerals are now under some form of export control globally China's processing monopoly is both the primary supply risk and the primary compliance risk — A2 at DRC cobalt supply is a managed scarcity, not a market commodity — A1 at 85% reflects the structural Strategic Perspective: 0.87 urgency — "Is China's processing monopoly a permanent structural constraint or a temporary leverage instrument?"USAID program restoration will not exceed 25% of pre-March 2025 levels within the 12-month planning Sudan healthcare system will not functionally recover in 2026 without a ceasefire currently assessedConflict-adjacent markets (Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Kenya, Uganda) are absorbing 30–50% demand surgesGovernance Perspective: 0.82 urgency — "Does USAID contract termination create disclosure obligations and receivables liability requiring board-level review?"SPFS secondary sanctions exposure is the highest-ROI compliance action in the next 48 hours. A2 at 8Iran war OFAC designation expansion within 90 days (A3 at 75%) is a near-base-case outcome based on The December 2025 OFAC third-country intermediary guidance creates a behavioral compliance obligatioGovernance Perspective: 0.84 urgency — "Does SPFS secondary sanctions criminal liability require board-level authorization for the compliance program update?"The EU's 19th sanctions package (October 2025) structurally removed Russian LNG from European marketIran-Hormuz risk premium of $8–12/barrel is embedded in Brent crude pricing and will persist absent European LNG import terminal capacity — not supply availability — is the binding physical constraintGovernance Perspective: 0.89 urgency — "Does EU sanctions compliance for LNG transactions require board-level compliance program authorization?"More than half of all energy-transition minerals are now under some form of export control globally China's processing monopoly is both the primary supply risk and the primary compliance risk — A2 at DRC cobalt supply is a managed scarcity, not a market commodity — A1 at 85% reflects the structural Strategic Perspective: 0.87 urgency — "Is China's processing monopoly a permanent structural constraint or a temporary leverage instrument?"
strategIA
oil energyMarch 16, 2026

Oil & Energy × Iran War Disruption — March 2026

Strait of Hormuz Closure, Yuan Oil Settlement & Global Energy Supply Shock — Iran War, March 2026

sUI — Uncertainty Index
0.66MEDIUM
Divergence
0.24

Executive Summary

The February 28, 2026 US-Israel strikes on Iran have triggered the most severe simultaneous maritime energy disruption since the 1973 oil embargo. The Strait of Hormuz — through which 21% of global oil and 20% of global LNG transits — is effectively closed: Lloyd's underwriters have cancelled marine insurance outright, and Maersk has suspended all services. Houthi attacks have simultaneously closed the Bab el-Mandeb, forcing all non-military tanker traffic to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10–14 days and over $1M in additional fuel costs per voyage. Iran's announcement of oil sales in yuan on March 12 adds a petrodollar dimension that energy trading desks are not yet fully pricing.

sUI Score: 0.66 (MEDIUM-HIGH) — Lower divergence than corporate or defense reports (DI: 0.24) reflects broad agreement on the severity of the supply disruption. Primary uncertainty is OPEC+ political decision-making on spare capacity (C7 at 45%) and Kharg Island damage extent (C6 at 50%).

7 validated for robustness against alternative scenarios actions inside. Each action references the probability assumptions that govern its urgency.

7 Actions Inside

01Reroute All Tanker Contracts to Cape of Good Hope
Why Now

C1 at 95% and C2 at 80% together make dual-corridor closure the near-certain operational environment. Any voyage still routed through Hormuz or Bab el-Mandeb carries insurance cancellation risk and physical safety risk. Delaying rerouting instructions compounds downstream refinery scheduling disruption.

02Audit Crude Inventory Against 30-Day Refinery Run Rate
03Execute Emergency Spot Crude Purchases for Sub-20-Day Refineries
04Stress-Test Refinery Crude Flexibility for Grade Substitution
05Model Yuan Settlement Exposure in Energy Trading Book
06Engage IEA and Government on SPR Coordination
07Establish Energy Supply Monitoring Dashboard

Full details — What, Why Now, and adversarial warnings — inside the report.

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